As a new Chicago resident, I appreciate your logical and data based analysis of Chicago issues. The difference between prosecution and clearance rates surprised me. There are so many opportunities for improvement here.
1. Agreed. Also that we accept/entertain this bullshit justifications that conceal this mediocrity. I'd bet that there are a set of problems here (some CPD, some SAO, some elsewhere), but fixing them requires a modicum of honesty about what's going on.
2. I cannot answer your particular question there, but I find it very frustrating that CWB is both a source of important crime information that isn't covered elsewhere, and also does not operate in a manner that is conducive to building trust, credibility, or genuine social progress.
cwb regularly posts pictures of criminals who are white. here are two examples from the last two weeks. unfortunately, because of lots of social and historical reasons, most of the street level violent crime in chicago covered by cwb is caused by non-white persons.
It feels worth noting that we can also look at these at levels as well as rates. I am curious: what is the absolute number of clearances year over year, what is the number of clearances per detective, and how does our detective efficiency (as measured by homicide prosecutions per detective) compare to cities with way higher clearance rates?
I suspect the recent uptick in prosecution rates obscures relatively static absolute levels for successful prosecutions and for detective efficiency.
this doesn't get at most of the details of your question unfortunately but: per the Chicago Data Portal, arrests per homicide had been in decline from, say, 2005 to 2015 or so and since then they've vacillated pretty wildly.
Generally speaking clearance rates *should* increase when total murders go down, because detectives have more time/resources to allocate to individual cases. We're going to keep working on and looking at this.
This is a great analysis of what is happening with Chicago’s homicide statistics. I’d like to understand why there’s such a gap between Chicago and NY’s ability to solve homicides though, beyond the usual finger pointing between CPD and the States Attorney.
Yeah one other possibility is that the SAO feels like it's scored on its "win rate" which leads it to take and prosecute fewer cases than it actually should. I would like to figure out more here, but the list of issues and problems keeps expanding...
Murders were down 30% last year. And many of the problems we're discussing here have been solved (at least partially) elsewhere.
If Chicago keeps getting safer, and make steady progress on a few other issues (finances, housing, transit), things could be pretty awesome around here.
The violent crime rate has plummeted across the entire country so I’m very skeptical chicago deserves much credit. And that is a massive “if” on the other things
Sure - the question of credit is a little different from the question of good news. But given our outlier status today, a 30% homicide drop for us opens far more neighborhoods (and saves far more lives) than an equivalent drop in a city like New York or SF.
The violent crime rate has plummeted across the country, but in Chicago it's generally declined more and faster than in other places.
Since 2021, Chicago's homicides have declined the second most of the most 10 populous US cities - a bit under 50% drop. Philadelphia declined the most at ~60%. Chicago had a high starting point of total homicides, sure, but it has still seen significant declines even compared to other large cities with significant crime levels
Less than a third of murders being cleared with arrest or prosecution is appalling! Well done bringing this to light.
Some cities, like Omaha or St. Paul, regularly solve more than 95% of their homicides, year after year.
As a new Chicago resident, I appreciate your logical and data based analysis of Chicago issues. The difference between prosecution and clearance rates surprised me. There are so many opportunities for improvement here.
Hey thanks!
2 thoughts:
1. I find it baffling that we accept CPD's incredibly expensive mediocrity.
2. So, does CWB only include mugshots when the alleged criminal is non-white? Interesting.
Thanks for the post.
1. Agreed. Also that we accept/entertain this bullshit justifications that conceal this mediocrity. I'd bet that there are a set of problems here (some CPD, some SAO, some elsewhere), but fixing them requires a modicum of honesty about what's going on.
2. I cannot answer your particular question there, but I find it very frustrating that CWB is both a source of important crime information that isn't covered elsewhere, and also does not operate in a manner that is conducive to building trust, credibility, or genuine social progress.
Yes. Like all "free" things online, the costs are often more than the service is worth.
Well now this is just awkward...
-Guy who writes a newsletter that's free to read
Touché. Allow me to rephrase: like MOST "free" things online...
cwb regularly posts pictures of criminals who are white. here are two examples from the last two weeks. unfortunately, because of lots of social and historical reasons, most of the street level violent crime in chicago covered by cwb is caused by non-white persons.
https://cwbchicago.com/2026/06/wicker-parks-serial-kitten-killer-avoids-prison-with-last-minute-plea-deal.html
https://cwbchicago.com/2026/06/fbi-seeks-more-victims-of-aurora-school-board-member-charged-with-child-sexual-abuse.html
Mayor Johnson's strong suite has never been math, even though he allegedly taught it.
It feels worth noting that we can also look at these at levels as well as rates. I am curious: what is the absolute number of clearances year over year, what is the number of clearances per detective, and how does our detective efficiency (as measured by homicide prosecutions per detective) compare to cities with way higher clearance rates?
I suspect the recent uptick in prosecution rates obscures relatively static absolute levels for successful prosecutions and for detective efficiency.
this doesn't get at most of the details of your question unfortunately but: per the Chicago Data Portal, arrests per homicide had been in decline from, say, 2005 to 2015 or so and since then they've vacillated pretty wildly.
Generally speaking clearance rates *should* increase when total murders go down, because detectives have more time/resources to allocate to individual cases. We're going to keep working on and looking at this.
This is a great analysis of what is happening with Chicago’s homicide statistics. I’d like to understand why there’s such a gap between Chicago and NY’s ability to solve homicides though, beyond the usual finger pointing between CPD and the States Attorney.
Yeah one other possibility is that the SAO feels like it's scored on its "win rate" which leads it to take and prosecute fewer cases than it actually should. I would like to figure out more here, but the list of issues and problems keeps expanding...
Is there ever good news in this city
Murders were down 30% last year. And many of the problems we're discussing here have been solved (at least partially) elsewhere.
If Chicago keeps getting safer, and make steady progress on a few other issues (finances, housing, transit), things could be pretty awesome around here.
The violent crime rate has plummeted across the entire country so I’m very skeptical chicago deserves much credit. And that is a massive “if” on the other things
Sure - the question of credit is a little different from the question of good news. But given our outlier status today, a 30% homicide drop for us opens far more neighborhoods (and saves far more lives) than an equivalent drop in a city like New York or SF.
The violent crime rate has plummeted across the country, but in Chicago it's generally declined more and faster than in other places.
Since 2021, Chicago's homicides have declined the second most of the most 10 populous US cities - a bit under 50% drop. Philadelphia declined the most at ~60%. Chicago had a high starting point of total homicides, sure, but it has still seen significant declines even compared to other large cities with significant crime levels